11 or 12?


Hardcore readers of the blog will know right away where I’m going with this post tonight, so just indulge me for a few minutes if you will. For those that don’t over the next two seasons (2013+ 2014); the NCAA will allow FCS teams to play 12 games if they so choose, with the season beginning on the final Saturday in August (next year NDSU plays at Kansas State on August 31st), which begs the question, what will teams do next season? It also gets a heck of a lot more interesting when throw in the fact that the playoff field expands to 24 teams next season, so three more at-large berths will be up for grabs. Why is this at all important? Think of this if you’re on the playoff selection committee when you’re comparing resumes:

TEAM A :  Played 11 Games; 7-4 Record; 2nd/3rd in Conference; No FBS win; No D2 or D3 wins; have 2 quality FCS non-conference wins

TEAM B: Played 12 Games ; 8-4  Record; 2nd/3rd in Conference; No FBS win; No D2 or D3 Wins; have 2 quality non-conference wins

This scenario could and probably will present itself next year and it’s going to be a massive headache for the committee. What’s to constitute a better win? Ask Illinois State about that; the Redbirds had 7 Division 1 wins last year and were left out of the playoff party at 7-4. No doubt in my mind more teams will be left at home at 7-4, if a team has 8, it’s just the eye-test in my mind, not even considering wins. But to that point, teams have got out and got more aggressive in scheduling with the expanded playoffs coming; have a look at some FCS non-conference matchups over the next couple of years:

2013 – Montana State at NDSU; Appalachian State at Montana; Eastern Washington at Sam Houston State; Stephen F. Austin at Weber State

2014 – Montana at NDSU; Sam Houston State at Eastern Washington; McNeese State at Appalachian State

Some teams have gone a different route and are scheduling two FBS opponents for next season; some have gone the drastic measure of three! (Austin Peay, Nicholls State and Western Carolina; who comes to Fargo next September the 21st; you all can forget about the playoffs next season. But some big time FCS programs have decided to go the 2 FBS route; notably Northern Iowa and Eastern Washington this year; the Eagles will do it again next season with games at Oregon State and Toledo. Stony Brook, ranked 9th in the latest coaches poll will play Boston College and Buffalo.

As I try to wrap this as quickly as possible, what do schools like NDSU do? Gene Taylor and Craig Bohl have both told me on numerous occassions, they would only play 11 games, knowing the grind of the Missouri Valley and the playoffs takes on a team. But if there’s an option to play a quality FCS team and get a home and home with a team, how do you pass that up? I’m not favoring a game with a certain opponent that I know all of our readers think I’m going with this; but let’s just a series with Stony Brook? Or Delaware? Or Central Arkansas(you all want to see the purple field) I for one, would love a chance to see a really good FCS team come to Fargo and a chance to go see one out of conference. Let’s hear your thoughts and please let’s keep it constructive!

22 thoughts on “11 or 12?

  1. I say stay at 11 games. The MVFC is tough enough let alone trying to get through a tough playoff field. We don’t need another quality FCS opponent we will see plenty of them in the playoffs.We don’t need extra FBS paydays at NDSU we win national titles! As far as the team up North let’s just leave that ’til we meet in the playoffs. Go Bison!

  2. Agree to an extent Jeff….but the time may come when that extra win is needed to make the playoff field-or help secure a higher seed.

  3. “But if there’s an option to play a quality FCS team and get a home and home with a team, how do you pass that up? let’s just a series with Stony Brook? Or Delaware? Or Central Arkansas(you all want to see the purple field) I for one, would love a chance to see a really good FCS team come to Fargo and a chance to go see one out of conference.”

    Even though we cant agree that Western is going to cancel the trip to Fargo, I totally agree with this. Yes there is a lot of buzz with this team and yes NDSU needs to capitalize on this. But sometimes you have to play chess while everyone else is playing checkers. Is 6 or 7 road games next year really a horrible thing for a team that will be so senior driven? Go on the road to NAU and Jacksonville St (I pick those as those are states NDSU is recruiting in) and get home and homes so you set yourself up for 7 home game seasons in the future. Either way I know Gene will make the right call and that is the best feeling of all.

  4. Why not play one “real FBS” team and then another “MWC or MAAC” team we can pound. I think the Bison can play with anyone in the Big 10, Big 12 or Pac 12 (minus the top Oregon/USC) and win. If we don’t need the big “pay day try home and home or even there/Fargo/there to bring a FBS team in? Can you imagine the excitement in the Dome? Recruiting? If we could tell recruits you will play on National TV (Pac 12/Big 10/Big 12 networks, not just ND channels and small cable channels) it would help in recruiting. IMO

    • No big conference FBS program will come to Fargo! “play with anyone” in the Big 10, Big 12, Pac 12? Except USC, Oregon, Stanford, Nebraska, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Cal, Washington, UCLA, Baylor, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas, West Virginia…but besides that ANYONE!
      I do think NDSU should try to schedule a game at one of the big FBS programs and see the HUGE difference between a top FBS and a lower FBS (Minnesota, Colorado State, Wyoming…). Bison in the Big House, Camp Randall, The Coliseum, Notre Dame, The Swamp would be a great time and give a little more national exposure, but at least you could see what a top FCS program looks like compared to a top FBS program.

      • I agree with what you are saying Bigtime but do you remember that Northern Iowa gave Wisconsin all they wanted this year and UNI is a bad FCS program. Last year the Gophers lost to USC 19-17 in California then came back and lost to the Bison. A few years ago Stanford lost to I think it was Sac-State. SDSU almost beat Nebraska back in 2009. The Jacks had a TD called back or they would have. The Jacks made the playoffs but didn’t win a playoff game that year. I was glad to see you didn’t have Iowa on the list cuz they are a joke right now as an FBS team! So not all teams in power conferences are out of reach for a school like NDSU, but you are right that most bigtime programs would handle the Bison on a regular basis. Go Bison!

        • I wouldn’t say UNI is a bad team. They had a rough start and it has been uphill ever since. NDSU would win against lower and middle level FBS schools. We will find out next year how the Bison stack up against a pretty good FBS school in Manhattan, KS. Until then, let’s stay focused and try to win another Nat’l Championship this year.

  5. I would say stay with 11 until it bites you in the butt. With the given example, I would worry less about 7 or 8 wins, and worry more about staying away from 4 losses. Easy to say, but if you play 11 games and lose 2 or 3, I’m thinking you are still in safe territory for making the playoffs. I absolutely love some of the scheduling that is going on in FCS staying in FCS. Montana at App. St this year was great to see even though those two programs are not having their typical seasons, it was still great seeing that matchup. If NDSU ever does go to 12, stay away from a second FBS game, there are plenty of intriguing matchups to schedule in FCS, and I also couldn’t care less about UND, there are at least two dozen FCS teams I would like to see the Bison play first before UND (most of the CAA, most of the Southern, top teams from Southland, and 6 other teams not named UND from the Big Sky). I know teams are scared to come to Fargo, it has taken a long time for the return games of Montana St. and Montana, but there are alot of ways you could go with a 12th game. But until the selection committee starts favoring teams that play a 12th, it may be physically better to stay at 11, as long as you don’t lose 4 which is the magic number.

  6. I wouldn’t be so sure that Western Carolina still has NDSU on their schedule. I get the feeling they’re pulling a Savannah St and buying out of a guarantee game with NDSU for a bigger guarantee game (that’s also closer). They already play in a tough conference and playing 3 FBS teams plus NDSU, who will be FBS caliber next season, out of confetence doesn’t seem to be something a sane AD and coach would want to do, even if they’re getting $100K+ from NDSU.

    • Almost certain WCU is buying out the game. Fans connected to the program over on AnyGivenSaturday.com haved posted that NDSU has already been informed(and possibly payed as well). Take it for messageboard chatter if you wish, but it’s probably pretty solid info. So now GT has to worry about filling the 11th slot on the schedule again before thinking about the 12th.

  7. I’d say stay with 11 games. I am confident we won’t need a 12th game to make the playoff field. As fun as it would be to play Stony Brook, I’d rather hope to see them in the playoffs than the regular season. If we continue playing at the level we are, we can get that extra 1-3 games at the Fargodome wih quality opponents.

    It’s pretty cool that we got to see James Madison, Robert Morris (when they were good), Lehigh, and Georgia Southern all at the dome over the last two years.

  8. One option would be to schedule another cupcake team as a 12th game and get more playing time for the backups as well as the additional win. Getting the backups more real game experience will never hurt you.

      • Somebody like them, not them though. We nned somebody that will give us exposure in other parts of the nation. Playing und does nothing for that, in fact it gives them the spotlight for free. It would be the biggest game for Und in 10 yrs. It would be just another game for NDSU. So why give them coverage when we can get much more out of it by scheduling someone in a different market.

  9. I doubt you see another FBS game on the schedule next year unless NDSU gets a huge payout from Big 10 or Big 12 school. Bison are alreay playing BCS K. State next year.

    1. Would a MAC or MWC even want to play the Bison next year? FCS vs. FBS games are supposed to be “Sure Wins” for FBS team.
    2. Are payouts from MAC/MWC even worth it for the Bison to risk playing a second FBS game?
    3. No FBS team will schedule a home and home with the FCS Bison. Too expensive to get to Fargo, FBS fanbase will hate the AD who does it. Too much risk of actually losing to an FCS team.

  10. No way NDSU plays a 2nd FBS game. If we turned down offers from Florida State and Oklahoma this year, no way another team will lure us. I do agree that getting a home and home would be good, especially if it gave us a 7th home game in ’14. I trust Gene. I think the model of 6 home games, 1 FBS game, and the occasional non conference game against a decent team is a good formula that has proven successful.

  11. The Bison win at Colorado State told me that the Bison could play move often at a higher level.

    I still think it would be great to schedule Stoney Brook and Slippery Rock in the same year. We’d have a much understanding of streams, rocks and brooks.

    • Colorado State is a 2 – 6 team with their two wins coming against a 1 – 7 Colorado team and a 1 – 6 Hawaii team.

      Colorado State’s Sagarin rating is 132. Missouri Valley Football Conference has 7 teams with a rating higher than Colorado State. Most likely Colorado State would be the 8th place team in the MVFC.

  12. I too agree with the 11 game schedule. If we played in a conference other than MVFC, maybe 12, but it is such a physical league and the teams that are left standing at the end of the season, holding trophies, are those with great depth and those that are most healthy at end of year. A little luck along the way does not hurt, but that extra game will hurt more than help. More is not always better. That from the great philosopher, Confusion.

  13. I also agree that we could play with anyone in the Big10,Pac12 or Big12. That includes USC and Oregon. Especially next year. MWill would shut down half the field and Heagle would dominate the other. I say schedule Ohio St. or Oregon next year and we’ll upset 2 BCS teams. Mark that down.

  14. So does that mean Indiana State could also play with the elite teams in the Big 10, 12, and Pac 10? get real dude.

  15. I say stay at 11 games with schedules like Gene Taylor and Coach Bohl have been making. The Bison just need to win the MVFC and they get the autobid. If we go to the national championship game and have a bye in the first week of the playoffs that is 15 games. Without a bye getting to the national championship game will mean 16 games.

    It isn’t like the FBS with bowl games. FBS teams play 13 games if they have 12 in the regular season and make a bowl game.

    I think as an FCS you only play 12 games if you don’t expect to make the playoffs or if you need the money and the 12th game is a second FBS game. NDSU expects the playoffs and doesn’t need the extra FBS money.