Bracketology 101

It’s a little more than 24 hours from the Selection Sunday NCAA tournament show and all indications point to NDSU being a No. 12 seed. It helped that Tulsa defeated Louisiana Tech in the Conference USA title game, for instance, because Tech was considered ahead of NDSU in the projections.

As to who the Bison will play isn’t certain, although renown bracketologist Joe Lunardi has had the Bison playing Oklahoma in the last couple of days. NDSU head coach Saul Phillips said he has a pool of about 11 teams that could be possible opponents and he’s been watching tape to get a feel for the type of team the Bison will face.

I’ve got a story going on this in Sunday’s Forum but Lunardi is very accurate when it comes to picking who’s in and who’s out. From there, I wouldn’t get too excited. Predicting matchups is an educated guess at best and certainly picking where most teams will play is a total guess. “Nobody knows that,” Phillips said. There are eight possible sites: Milwaukee, St. Louis, Buffalo, San Antonio, San Diego, Spokane, Orlando and Raleigh.

We’ll have a live blog starting about 4:30 prior to the Selection Show at 5 p.m. NDSU will be hosting a viewing event at the BSA with doors opening at 3:30.

27 thoughts on “Bracketology 101

  1. I’m hoping for an evening game so I don’t have to take time off from work to watch them. I guess that probably means hoping they play on the west coast.

  2. Will it be quiet on the women’s basketball coaching search front until after the men’s basketball tournament run?

  3. Gonna have to see the 12 up there before I believe it. The RPI is great, but the way Notre Dame stunk up the joint kinda hurts our biggest “quality” win department. Yes, I get the Delaware and Towson and Southern Miss games but I really don’t think the committee cares about anything but the major conferences.

    That and past Summit champs have had better non-con wins. The year Oral Roberts beat Kansas they still only got a 13th seed. Same deal last year when SDSU won at New Mexico. Sorry but those were two MUCH better wins on a resume then beating a sub .500 Notre Dame team. The thing that dragged them down was, inevitably, the RPI strength of the Summit (though it’s better than ever this year) and the fact they all had a bad RPI loss. Losing to UND, Fort Wayne won’t help.

    In the end though, it doesn’t really matter. The difference between seeing a 4 or 5 seed isn’t that much. And they are far more beatable/upsettable than if you are a 15 or 16 playing a 2 or a 1.

    • the quality of teams above NDSU are not that high as in the past (example Tulsa)… that is just as important as what NDSU has done this season

    • I saw a bracket with Delaware as a 12 seed and it talked about close losses not wins over high majors like NDSU has over Notre Dame. Oh yeah, NDSU beat Delaware too.

      • Yeah, because when you think big time quality wins, you think Delaware.

        Please.

        Lunardi generally nails the field, the seeding is a different ball game. Again, if it happens great, but the league usually never goes higher than 13 and it’s not like we beat a RANKED Notre Dame team as past conference champions have done.

        And again, a 12 or 13 really doesn’t matter.

        • You don’t need “big time” quality wins, just quality wins. You don’t think that the Bison beating Western Michigan U at their place isn’t a quality win? They just won the MAC Championship tonight.

  4. I’m saying NDSU better be seeded above Delaware since the Bison beat them and have a higher RPI. Go Bison!

  5. One way to eliminate the talk of who should be in the tournament and toss out RPI or polls….. Take the top 2 out of each conference tournament and add 4 at large teams. This would make the top teams to have to earn their way into the NCAA by playing it. The teams that know they are already in the NCAA could careless how they do in their conference tournament. The best teams may not get in but that is why you have championship week. Maybe the power conferences get 3 qualifiers but the conference tournament should be the elimination tournament if you don’t get the top 2 or 3 spots your out.

  6. Look at the field. NDSU is a solid 12, and closer to an 11 than a 13. 12 seed in Spokane, book it

      • This was their chance to be the Big Fluff representative to the big dance and then lose by 47 points.

        • UND had 1quality win: NDSU

          Was it really 45? I don’t think most people paid any attention. It’s all about The Big Dakota schools competing as they always have, in the nations heartland.

  7. Can’t wait for Sunday at 5 PM for the NCAA Selection Show on CBS!! I’ll be watching the show along with millions of other viewers across the USA!! More national exposure for NDSU and this time it is on CBS.

    • That almost certainly won’t happen. The Bison played Ohio St already this season, and the committee is directed to avoid rematches in the first two rounds if at all possible.

  8. Ohio would be a tough game but for the Buckeyes. I’m sure they don’t want to play us a second time. Bison know what to expect can game plan easier. We won’t be coming off 3-4 week stretch where we went to west coast 2 or 3 times home for game then go to east coast while Ohio state was home the whole month. Bison played well on the west coast Will be playing in Brauns backyard. We know what happened the last time they had 10 days off. Should be a decent game. This will be this teams signature B10 win Bison by 5 points.

  9. Jeff: Slight bone to pick with your article. In it, you make it sound like Lunardi made conscious choices to pick NDSU, IPFW & USD as the Summit representative throughout the season. In reality, all he does is pick whoever’s on top of the conference standings at that particular moment. I think it even says that at the top of the ESPN page. I figure you probably know that, but your article sent a different tone.

  10. Remember that 12 seeds beat 5 seeds about 98% of the time.

    You could look it up.

    Whoever the Bison play better look out.

  11. Well we are the 12 seed so much what happened in the past, but if they only used RPI and the same teams involved in our bracket you can argue that Bison should have been a 10 seed so maybe the Summit held them back some. In looking at the match up I think we match up pretty well height wise. Looks like their best player shoots a lot of 3′s which I think if we stop like in the Denver game gives us an edge. Since there wont be a height advantage and we score around the basket, and we have mostly seniors they have 2…this will be a very close game and could be the upset of the second round. 64% of the time the 5 seed will beat the 12 but not this time Bison 64 Sooners 59. Sat game with San Diego State (the other SDSU) same result SDSU plays tight we win by 2 then we get crushed but we get to the sweet 16.

  12. UND lost by 20 to Weber. Three end-of-season injuries hurt them, but UND has always matched up poorly against Weber State for some reason.